Two other Minnesota polls released over the last few weeks by. 43.5. It’s also the biggest of the three states, with 20 electoral votes at stake. Yahoo fait partie de Verizon Media.
The latest Times/Siena poll found him winning 55 percent of Florida’s Latino voters, and in a dead heat with Mr. Trump among Hispanic men.
There’s no evidence to support claims that election observers were blocked from counting rooms. FiveThirtyEight places Biden’s lead there at 4.7 percentage points, while it has dropped in the RealClearPolitics average to 1.2 percentage points (including some less well-known and partisan pollsters).
Add those factors together, and there’s enough room to see a possible (but narrow) Trump win. In 2016, late news — the renewed FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails — put a damaging issue back into the spotlight just before Election Day. Late movement in his favor, or even a polling error that underestimates Democratic support (as happened in 2012) could turn a solid lead into a big win. Pour autoriser Verizon Media et nos partenaires à traiter vos données personnelles, sélectionnez 'J'accepte' ou 'Gérer les paramètres' pour obtenir plus d’informations et pour gérer vos choix. For Election Day reporting, analysis, and results (when we have 'em) out of Pennsylvania, sign up to get our PA 2020 newsletter. The point is, Pennsylvania appears to be closer than Michigan or Wisconsin. (CNN)Poll of the week: A new ABC News/Washington Post poll from Minnesota finds Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a 57% to 41% lead over President Donald Trump among likely voters. The RealClearPolitics averages show it a bit closer, with Biden’s lead at 5 to 6 points in each. In 2012, however, we saw the leading candidate (Barack Obama) win pretty much all of the close states. An NBC/Marist poll of Florida last week showed Mr. Biden falling below 50 percent among Hispanic voters. Get our newsletter in your inbox twice a week. Trump's historic unpopularity may not be a deal breaker in 2020, See the moment CNN called the race for Joe Biden, Trump was golfing when election called for Biden, Watch people across the world celebrate Joe Biden's win, Van Jones: For a lot of people it's a good day, 'It brings tears to my eyes': Susan Rice on Harris' historic win. Biden is quite competitive. Democrats are expecting even bigger support in Pennsylvania’s suburbs, while Biden, polls suggest, has made inroads in the rural areas Trump carried and with senior citizens. So if something were to go wrong for Joe Biden, it would probably entail a loss in Pennsylvania. This year we just don't know how it's going to play out. In other words, Biden's much closer to leading in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas than Trump is in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, let alone Minnesota. Harris is also the first Black person and first South Asian American person to be elected to the role. Sign up for the To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. So let’s say Trump pulls it out in all these states — Texas, Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa.
Polls also show Biden leading in more swing states, usually by bigger margins, compared to Clinton. But Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — 1.2 to 4.7 percentage points, depending on the polling average — is not quite big enough for Democrats to be completely confident in it, particularly given what happened in 2016, when Donald Trump won the state and the polls underestimated Trump’s performance there by about 4 points. That's exactly what happened in 2016, when Trump won most of the close states. We're not really talking about those places right now, even though one or both campaigns have fairly major advertising investments planned down the stretch in all four. Biden tends to top 50 percent in more state polls as well, since there are fewer undecided and third-party voters. If Mr. Biden wins Florida, he may do so while proving that a Democrat can win the state without the resounding support of its large Hispanic population. Then the election comes down to the one state remaining: Arizona and its 11 electoral votes. Biden is also either narrowly ahead or about tied in polls of another set of swing states that he doesn’t even need to win: Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas.
How to check if your ballot was rejected — and possibly fix it if it was. President Donald Trump tosses a hat after a rally Monday at the Lancaster Airport. Both Senate races, however, could head to runoff elections in January if no candidate reaches 50 percent of the vote. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. But the Democratic nominee’s political vitals look fairly good. Poll …
The Selzer poll also found that Joni Ernst, the state’s Republican senator, was up four points on her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. [These are the key states President-elect Joe Biden won.]. The second factor is that the world is unpredictable and polls are not predictions, they are a snapshot of a moment time. “Biden’s been more stable at a higher number than Clinton ever was in 2016.”, Same poll, four years apart:2016Clinton: 46%Trump: 41%2020Biden: 51%Trump: 44%I feel like I tweet this every day, but the lack of "eh, they both suck" voters who'll pick a third party really complicates Trump's math.https://t.co/FMGLyRbO8h. Most high-quality polls show Trump’s support stuck in the 43% to 45% range. Yet, it should also be pointed out that despite folks like me usually focusing on how Trump can close the gap with Biden and put new states into play, there's another side to this equation. Indeed, it's quite possible he's actually up in either Georgia, Iowa, Ohio or Texas, and we just don't know it because there isn't enough fresh data. Several historically reliable pollsters have found even bigger leads for Biden (more on that below).
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